Voting behaviour in Uganda since 1996
Abstract
Exploring factors likely to influence 2011 poll in Uganda is the main objective of this paper. The data for
this study was obtained through a content analysis of election results (1996, 2001 and 2006) and
interview, which was carried out in the period between July to October, 2010 across the different
regions in the country, North, South, West, East and Central to ascertain the factors that are likely to
drive the 2011 poll. Although Uganda’s ruling party, the National Resistance Movement (NRM) under the
leadership of Museven has been winning successive democratic elections since it transited into
democratic rule in 1996; its support has been gradually and steadily declining. The study findings
based on elections 1996, 2001 and 2006; and a random survey data from respondents across the
different regions in the country through interviews, show that voters reward the incumbent president
for fulfilling their demands. The study findings further reveal that factors such as discovery of oil and
creation of new districts, infrastructural development among others will be central in influencing the choice of the electorates across these regions. The paper concludes on a point of how NRM the ruling party is likely to perform.
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