Islamic Univerity Journal (IUJ)

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Islamic University Journal (IUJ)

The Islamic University Journal is a bi-annual multi disciplinary and multi lingual scholarly journal that encourages both theoretical and practical debate on a wide range of topical issues.

The Islamic University Journal challenges contributors to use innovative proactive and creative ways of presenting and reporting their research.
Submissions are subject to a blind peer review process.

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Analysis of non-linear transmission of EBOLA virus disease and the impact of public health control interventions in hospital: the case of Guinea (West Africa) outbreak 2014.
(2016) Babangida, Bala Garba; Nazziwa, Aisha; Noor, Kasim; Adiukwu, Roseline Nwawure; Ngaloru, Stellamaris Ngozi; Mafuyai, Yaks Mabur; Obi, Edith Nkeiru; Onwunali, Magnus Chibueze; Obanny, Adolphus
ARTICLE ABSTRACT Epidemiological data on infection outbreaks are challenging to analyze, despite improved control interventions Ebola virus Disease (EVD) remains a serious risk in Guinea (West Africa) with 607 reported cases and 406 deaths recorded (66.8%) as of 20th August, 2014.In this study we use modified epidemiological modeling SEIR to analyze data from an Ebola outbreak in Guinea from 22nd march – 20th August,2014 We use Bayesian inference with non – linear transmission times incorporated into augmented data set as latent variables. Despite the lack of detailed data, most data sets record the time on symptom onset but transmission time is not observable. We inferred from such dataset records using structured Hidden Markov Models HMMS. Infectivity is determined before and after public health interventions for hospitalized cases. We estimate the number of secondary cases generated by an index case in the absence of control interventions (Ro). Our estimate of Ro is 1.57 (CI95 0.82-1.92) and the mean value of estimated detection rate is 0.75 (CI95 0.59 -0.93) with a coefficient of correlation between 𝛽𝛽 and v as – 0.23. We perform sensitivity analysis of the final epidemic size to the time of intervention, which ensures the uniqueness and the global stability of the positive endemic equilibrium state.
Application of Markov chain Modelto foreign debt management in Nigerian economy
(2016) Ngaloru, Stellamaris Ngozi; Abdulazeez, Halimat; Ebuk, Love E.; Adiukwu, Roseline N; Nafiu, Lukman Abiodun
ARTICLE ABSTRACT Since the last century, there have been marked changes in the approach to scientific enquiries and greater realisation that probability (or non-deterministic) models are more realistic than deterministic models in many situations. Observations taken at different time points rather than those taken at a fixed period of time began to engage the attention of probabilists. Many stochastic processes occurring in social sciences are studied now not only as a random phenomenon but also as one changing with time or space called Markov chain. This study considered an application of Markov chain model to predict future debt pattern as effective management of any nation’s debt is crucial to growth and development of the economy of that nation. We collected data on debts maintained by all the thirty-six states governments and Federal Capital Territory, Abuja in Nigeria for a period of six years and determined future debt trend based on the transition probabilities between various groups of transition states. Three noticeable transition states namely; rising, stable and dropping of debt trend were used. The findings revealed that 55% of states governments will have a rise in their debt profile, 6% will have a stable debt profile while 39% will have a drop in their debt profile. Therefore, it was recommended that the federal government should design appropriate financing strategies that guarantee a debt path matching loan with the ability to repay and put up a policy as a preventive action to reduce, in the medium term, the possibility of debt unsustainability by the various states governments in Nigeria.
Evaluation of procurement process in universal basic education board in Nigeria
(2015) Ngaloru, Stellamaris Ngozi; Onwunali, Magnus Chibueze; Ebuk, Love Effiong; Adiukwu, Roseline Nwawure; Shazali, Is’haq; Nafiu, Lukman Abiodun
ARTICLE: Before the year 2007, Nigerian government has been managing unprofitable contractual situations, most of which lacked the needed value for money. Some of which also were negative due to the very little monitoring habit that coursed general project abandonment for which in a general view those projects had suffered a great setback in terms of quality and sustainability. Furthermore, the government had made series of efforts trying to subdue these impending problems during which ample consultations were made; many programmes were designed in the bid to stop the menace. However, it was in the course of this that in the year 2007 the government came up with an agency that was shouldered with responsibility of checkmating these issues to appropriately monitor the quality of jobs being done and making sure that such works were actually captured in the year’s budget and therefore executing them accordingly. The government witnessed a tremendous achievement with this effort and thereby felt the need to improve on it and then transformed it into a well-organized outfit with autonomous control over all MDAs in the case of contract execution. This giant step has helped the Universal Basic Education Board to also have the long needed control over their numerous contracts across the country. It brought a great sanity into their ways of engagement concerning every contract process putting in mind the now introduced procurement law. The Universal Basic Education Board has therefore adopted all necessary medium in their ways of conducting all contract proceedings adhering with the procurement law put in place. The daring need therefore to completely abolish all past errors brought the need to adopt and practice the present procurement processes. Therefore, the extent of achievements of these processes needed to be abreast which in turn brought the need for the procurement process of the Universal Basic Education Board. It is very important that all parties must be satisfied with the quality of the project as well as timely payment by the client if satisfied for the overall performance. It is recommended that the pre-qualification process should be supported by laws which will guide against the people that might try to hijack the process. The whole process should be overhaul to avoid those who will try to use power in trying force professionals or official assign in carrying out the pre-qualification task.

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Browsing Islamic Univerity Journal (IUJ) by Author "Ngaloru, Stellamaris Ngozi"