Islamic Univerity Journal (IUJ)

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Islamic University Journal (IUJ)

The Islamic University Journal is a bi-annual multi disciplinary and multi lingual scholarly journal that encourages both theoretical and practical debate on a wide range of topical issues.

The Islamic University Journal challenges contributors to use innovative proactive and creative ways of presenting and reporting their research.
Submissions are subject to a blind peer review process.

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Analysis of non-linear transmission of EBOLA virus disease and the impact of public health control interventions in hospital: the case of Guinea (West Africa) outbreak 2014.
(2016) Babangida, Bala Garba; Nazziwa, Aisha; Noor, Kasim; Adiukwu, Roseline Nwawure; Ngaloru, Stellamaris Ngozi; Mafuyai, Yaks Mabur; Obi, Edith Nkeiru; Onwunali, Magnus Chibueze; Obanny, Adolphus
ARTICLE ABSTRACT Epidemiological data on infection outbreaks are challenging to analyze, despite improved control interventions Ebola virus Disease (EVD) remains a serious risk in Guinea (West Africa) with 607 reported cases and 406 deaths recorded (66.8%) as of 20th August, 2014.In this study we use modified epidemiological modeling SEIR to analyze data from an Ebola outbreak in Guinea from 22nd march – 20th August,2014 We use Bayesian inference with non – linear transmission times incorporated into augmented data set as latent variables. Despite the lack of detailed data, most data sets record the time on symptom onset but transmission time is not observable. We inferred from such dataset records using structured Hidden Markov Models HMMS. Infectivity is determined before and after public health interventions for hospitalized cases. We estimate the number of secondary cases generated by an index case in the absence of control interventions (Ro). Our estimate of Ro is 1.57 (CI95 0.82-1.92) and the mean value of estimated detection rate is 0.75 (CI95 0.59 -0.93) with a coefficient of correlation between 𝛽𝛽 and v as – 0.23. We perform sensitivity analysis of the final epidemic size to the time of intervention, which ensures the uniqueness and the global stability of the positive endemic equilibrium state.
Mathematical Modelling of an Outbreak of Ebola Virus (EBOV): Predicting the Future of Ebola in West Africa.
(2015) Babangida, Bala Garba; Mafuyai, M.Y
ARTICLE Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak is an emergency of international concern and there has been very little work done to predict the spread of the virus in West Africa .The 2014 EBOV outbreak is the largest in the history of mankind. Despite improved control measures, Ebola remains a serious public health risk in African regions where recurrent outbreaks have been observed since the initial epidemic in 1976. In response to the continuing report of new cases of deaths (49.9% of 1914 reported cases between 1st- 31st August 2014) and the effects of control interventions are yet to be determined. Real-time analysis of EBOV could provide helpful information for public health policy in West Africa .In this study we describe 2014 EBOV epidemic using SIR and SEIR Models, fitting the models to the most recent data about reported cases and deaths in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia provided estimates of the basic reproductive numbers Ro of EBOV in absence and presence of control intervention. We offer the most recent example of how tragedy can befall a country. The dynamics of these models are determined by the per-capita death rate of the infected individual and the per-capita effective contact rate of an individual contracting the disease. We computed the basic reproductive number RO and the effective reproduction number Re to determine the infectiousness and the dynamics of EBOV. Finally the results of these outbreaks will equip epidemiologist modelling Ebola diseases in future with predictions to enable them minimize potential deaths.

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Browsing Islamic Univerity Journal (IUJ) by Author "Babangida, Bala Garba"